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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.