A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
